RESUMO
We study the labour market impact of the confinement measures implemented in Spain to halt the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in the first quarter of 2020. We use data from 8108 municipalities to quantify the impact of the shutdown of non-essential activity on local unemployment. Ordinary least squares regressions show that an increment of 10 percentage points in the share of firms performing non-essential activities increased the unemployment-population ratio by between 0.032 and 0.148 percentage points. We only find this positive effect in municipalities with more than 2395 inhabitants. The lockdown explains between 25% and 40% of the observed increase in the unemployment within these municipalities. We also look at the impact of the lockdown by gender and age, and find that the impact of these closures was felt relatively more by males and workers above 45 years old.
RESUMO
The 2008 reform of the Spanish disability system reduced the benefits for individuals who have a short contributory history relative to their age. It also unintentionally introduced an incentive for individuals to apply for disability in the present. We use a lifecycle model and an empirical analysis to understand the overall impact of the reform. Our baseline estimates suggest that men and women who were affected by the reform were 46% and 22% more likely to be on permanent partial disability following the reform, respectively, and 55% and 46% more likely to be on total disability, respectively.
